Sports are full of ‘what-if’ moments, and Formula 1 (F1) is no different. What if a driver had made that split-second decision behind the steering wheel to win the race? What if a team never messed up that critical pitstop? What if a team boss had gone with his instincts and signed that driver? With Lewis Hamilton recently clinching a record-extending 100th victory after winning the Russian Grand Prix in Sochi, we’re taking a look back at the sliding doors moment for the seven-time World Champion: What if Hamilton never joined Mercedes?
The Moment of Truth
When F1 legend Michael Schumacher announced his retirement and Hamilton’s decision to join the Silver Arrows was revealed, there was no shortage of confident journalists prepared to argue that in parting ways with McLaren for Mercedes, the 2008 World Champion was committing career suicide. Of course, with the greatest of all wisdoms, hindsight, we can look back and chuckle. After all, six championship titles are solid proof that the Briton was right to join the team that would dominate the era of turbo-hybrid F1 cars.
There’s absolutely no doubt that McLaren wanted to keep Hamilton. And if you knew what was happening at McLaren in 2012 and compared what Mercedes had accomplished since 2010, it seemed a no-brainer Hamilton would stay put (in those three years, McLaren captured 18 race wins to Mercedes’ one). However, questions about current performance or future success were irrelevant. Hamilton simply wanted the personal freedom he needed to achieve his best.
The Alternative Reality
But what if Hamilton had continued to work with McLaren team boss Ron Dennis? What if he had kept the faith, having first approached Dennis as a ten-year-old prospect dominating the karting world? “Hi. I’m Lewis Hamilton. I won the British Championship, and one day I want to be racing your cars.” Working his way up from the McLaren driver development program, Hamilton soon earned his well-deserved F1 seat. But Hamilton’s relationship with McLaren was short-lived.
Following the 2011 season, Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff and Chairman Niki Lauda had clearly decided that seven-time Champion Schumacher’s best years were behind him, hence the pursuit of Hamilton in the first place. Mercedes would have been eyeing Sebastian Vettel, but the chances of the German having already won three Drivers’ Championships to boldly walk away from success to join Mercedes were bleak. If Hamilton denied Mercedes’ offer, the pragmatic Lauda would have turned his attention to Fernando Alonso, a charismatic veteran who delivered 30 victories and two world championship titles by the end of 2012. If Alonso mirrored what Hamilton subsequently accomplished with Mercedes ––a whopping six titles and 79 race wins (and who is to say that he might have done better?)––the Spaniard would be the statistical king of the castle. Now there’s a thought...
Mercedes slowly began to turn the tide in 2013, while McLaren unexpectedly fell over the cliff. That season, Nico Rosberg earned two race wins, starting from pole (a position, determined by qualifying results, that lies at the front of the starting grid, giving the polesitter the advantage of starting ahead of all other drivers) three times, and Hamilton secured one win alongside five pole positions. McLaren, by contrast, had a disastrous year, failing to achieve a single race win or pole position.
McLaren’s Jenson Button’s best placing in 2013 was a paltry fourth place in the Brazilian Grand Prix, a damning indication of just how far McLaren had fallen and how much Hamilton would have struggled if he stayed. Though Hamilton could squeeze more out of a subpar car than Jenson could, Hamilton definitely would have fallen out of title contention that year, and it’s conceivable that he would have been looking for a seat elsewhere by the end of it. Remember, in our alternative reality, Alonso would already have taken Mercedes’ spot. Would Mercedes have risked dropping Nico Rosberg to take Hamilton after the tensions between Alonso and Hamilton at McLaren in 2007? Probably not. So, where else could he have gone?
Considering Vettel and Mark Webber’s dominance at the time (Red Bull won the Constructors’ Championship four consecutive times from 2010 to 2013), the Bulls would have kept their door shut; of the top teams, Ferrari would have been the only one with wiggle room. What if Hamilton joined the Italian Giants? That would have indeed opened up a whole new universe. Vettel would likely have had to stay at Red Bull rather than moving to Ferrari in 2015 and may have had to team up with Max Verstappen, who joined Red Bull in 2016. Cue the Jaws theme song. For those non-F1 fans out there, Verstappen and Vettel are the last two drivers who would conceivably team up, due to their contentious history of back-and-forth verbal attacks. Most notably, Vettel exploding inside his cockpit after Verstappen’s deliberate maneuver to hold the German back and Verstappen criticizing Vettel for his in-car radio outbursts and childish behavior were the highlights of the 2016 Mexican Grand Prix.
In all honesty, Ferrari’s standards would not have obtained the glory that followed at Mercedes in reality. Possibly, they would have fallen to 2016 World Champion Rosberg, who we might still have seen on the grid today if it wasn’t for his toxic relationship with Hamilton over the four years they were Mercedes teammates. That said, could Hamilton have turned 2018 and 2019 into Ferrari titles? Hamilton doesn’t tend to make the small errors (exceeding track limits, oversteering and understeering issues, tire mismanagement, etc.) that Vettel often makes, and both Ferrari and Mercedes had superb cars quick enough to be championship winners. If Hamilton had turned Ferrari back into a winning team, it would have set up a very different rivalry in today’s F1 scene.
Hamilton’s Future
With Hamilton’s Mercedes contract expiring at the end of 2020, rumors about Hamilton joining the Prancing Horse ramped up. During the summer leading up to the 2021 season, Ferrari launched their new SF21 model in hopes of immediately recovering from a poor season. The Scuderia’s latest challenger features a new engine unit with an innovative turbo layout, revised rear suspension, and a reworked nose region to maximize car performance. Though Hamilton recently signed a contract to remain at Mercedes for at least two more years, teaming up with young talent George Russell for the 2022 season, Ferrari’s impressive SF21 could have been the perfect car for Hamilton to thrive in races and secure his eighth world championship. In an age where Mercedes no longer has the dominant car on the grid, Hamilton’s world-class talent combined with the allure of Ferrari and the passion of the Tifosi could have engendered something special for the world of F1. But at the end of the day, who am I to judge Hamilton's decision? Perhaps the Brit has a little more to show with Mercedes before he writes his next chapter.
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